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the importance of expected value in trading
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Expected value is simple, I can explain it to you in less than 60 seconds 📈
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So many things to factor into this. But using the general rate of change and how XRP correlates with it is a much cleaner and more observable method of finding expected value. Vs things you believe may happen in the future, where you have no real handle on what the demand will be or the time horizon in which it arrives. If you sink your teeth into a trade and it takes much longer to play out than you hoped, which almost always happens, you’re then faced with the lost opportunity cost of other as
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How to maximize the long-term growth of your capital MATHEMATICALLY using Kelly bets. Kelly bets maximize the expected value of your capital as the number of “bets” or trades approaches infinity. It’s important to note that it doesn’t consider short term drawdown, risk of ruin, correlated bets, and other things, so do your due dilligence and understand what you’re doing before implementing it, but it’s a much better option than following some blind constant rule like 2% of TAV or whatever the Ti
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Win rate or avg. RR? Neither. Stop using uninformitive proxies to quantify whether your strategy makes money, and how erratic the strategy equity curve is. These are important ideas with existing metrics that quantify them explicitly, and leave nothing to guesswork. Know the probability that your edge is real, and the probability of incurring different maximum drawdowns before trading blindly. Use expected value (and its confidence intervals) and max drawdown distributions. #quantfinance #quantt
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