Expectations for widespread price hikes following a wave of new tariffs this year have largely fallen short, surprising economists and fueling claims from tariff defenders that the levies are having no impact on inflation.

Inflation is moving higher and the impact of tariffs are only beginning to show up in government data, likely keeping interest rates on hold.

New data showing price increases last month could foreshadow even higher costs if the president imposes steep tariffs on Aug. 1.