Steep U.S. tariffs are starting to squeeze the Chinese economy.

The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

Recent reports suggested some tariff relief on the ground as the U.S. and China sought to blunt the economic impacts of punitive tariffs.

The data covers a period in which a trade war between the US and China escalated dramatically, with tariffs now well over 100 per cent in both directions. China’s official PMI manufacturing gauge had expanded in February and March.

China’s factories hit the brakes in April as fresh U.S. tariffs cooled new orders and pushed manufacturers to cut jobs, a private survey showed Wednesday. Caixin and S&P Global April manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipped to 50.