Markets had dismissed tariff risks under the assumption that Trump would follow an earlier pattern and back off, in what became known as the so-called TACO trade. That allowed stocks to reach new record-high territory recently, marking a stunning rebound from the collapse triggered by his “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs in April.

If investors widely bet that Trump will blink, that means there is no market freakout. And no market freakout in turn means no one is holding Trump’s feet to the fire, pressuring him to back away from policies that could damage the economy and corporate profits.