The odds a U.S. recession will someday be determined to have begun between January 2025 and January 2026 have dropped to a little higher than a one-in-four chance.

The chart below shows the percentage decline ... "no." We've already seen the New York Fed's calculated probability of 33.6% that a recession could come over the next 12 months.

Business leaders projected that the odds of the U.S. economy entering into a recession were low ahead of President Donald ...

Economists see interest-rate increases raising likelihood of recession to 44% in coming 12 months. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal have dramatically raised the probability of ...

There are three reasons for that subjective judgment. The first is that the model-generated probability of a recession actually declined by five percentage points as a result of the increased ...

"Our base case for the macro environment remains benign, with our U.S. recession sentiment indicator suggesting a low probability of recession and supportive of risk assets," PGIM said in a note ...