The probability that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday determine a national recession began in the U.S. between December 2025 and December 2026 has fallen below twenty percent.

There are certain words you don’t want to hear in a medical checkup or in an investment bank’s recession outlook: “stable but elevated.” It’s a phrase that could refer to blood pressure, even risk of ...

After pausing for nine months, the U.S. Federal Reserve resumed cutting interest rates on 17 September 2025. The recession forecasting method we've used to monitor the odds of a recession starting in ...