The risk is that a hotter-than-expected June inflation report — one that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently called among the most important for assessing the impact of tariffs — could slow the pace at which the central bank lowers interest rates. Importantly, that could also throw a wrench into the stock market’s record-setting rally.

Economists have long been warning of a tariff-driven boost to US inflation. The next report on consumer prices will put their conviction to the test.

Economists and monetary policymakers have been trying to figure out exactly how much U.S. tariffs on goods will affect inflation. That's a task complicated by the evolving tariff situation, as President Trump sends letters to trading partners announcing tariff levels ranging from 20% to 50%.